Habitat suitability model for identifying human-wildlife interface and implications for wildlife trade of Sunda...

Pangolins are the most trafficked mammals in the world. Sunda pangolins (Manis javanica), in particular, are critically endangered due to their proximity to consumption hotspots and the scale of the globalized illegal trade network. Data on their ecological drivers can inform targeted strategies to cauterize supply lines. We used data from 1455 camera-stations deployed between 2008 and 2024 across a heterogeneous mix of landscapes in Sabah, northern Borneo, to model the geomorphological and anthropogenic drivers of Sunda pangolin distribution. Our most parsimonious logistic regression model included six variables: accessibility to human population (β = 0.597, p = 0.004), soil cation exchange capacity (β = -0.665, p = 0.003), soil clay content (β = -0.311, p = 0.051), soil nitrogen concentration (β = 0.9862, p = 0.0001), soil bulk density (β = 0.43, p = 0.143), and topographic position index (β = -0.61, p = 0.005). The model performed well as evaluated using an out-of-sample test dataset (sensitivity = 0.89, specificity = 0.57, and AUC = 0.73). A high proportion (~ 43%) of rural, human-dominated areas were identified as highly suitable pangolin habitat, but only ~ 15% of these areas are protected. We further confirmed the overlap in highly suitable pangolin habitat and human-occupied land using an independent citizen science dataset of pangolin detections collected between 2019 and 2024 (Boyce index = 0.75). Our results illustrate that Sunda pangolins often live in high-risk areas but also suggest an opportunity to develop community-centered conservation strategies to curb poaching and cauterize supply lines fueling the trade of Sunda pangolins in Southeast Asia.