Affective variability prospectively predicts higher affective well-being, but only when people feel low

Previous studies have predominantly viewed affective variability as detrimental to well-being, suggesting an unstable emotional state. However, research on early warning signs of affective disorders suggests that affective variability may also be adaptive, particularly when individuals' affective well-being is low. Here, we sought to test that greater affective variability would predict increased affective well-being over time (Hypothesis 1), or that better affective well-being would lead to lower affective variability over time (Hypothesis 2), and that the first relationship would be stronger for individuals with low prior levels of affective well-being (Hypothesis 3) and weaker for individuals high in neuroticism (Hypothesis 4). We tested this set of hypotheses by reanalyzing 14 ambulatory assessment data sets (N = 2,374 participants with 25,478 observations at the day level). Our integrative data analysis revealed that greater affective variability at time t₁ was significantly associated with better subsequent affective well-being at time t₂ at the day and year level. In addition, this association was significantly moderated by initial levels of affective well-being and by neuroticism, although the evidence for the latter was limited. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between within-person processes and between-person differences: Experiencing greater affective variability relative to others may indicate a lower level of overall affective well-being. At the same time, experiencing greater affective variability when feeling lower than usual may signal the potential for improvement in one's affective experience. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).