Public health impacts of increasing the minimum unit price for alcohol in Scotland: A model-based appraisal

Governments in several countries have introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol. Evaluation studies suggest this has reduced alcohol-related harm, but MUPs must increase with inflation to remain effective. This paper estimates the impact of the impact of the Scottish Government's decision to increase its MUP from £0.50 to £0.65 in September 2024 and, alternative options where the MUP changes to between £0.40 and £0.80. It examines impacts on alcohol consumption, spending, and related health outcomes, how impacts vary across the population with regard to deprivation, and how drinkers move between lighter and heavier alcohol consumption groups.

Policy appraisal using the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model, a dynamic microsimulation model that combines data on alcohol purchasing and consumption for 10 beverage types and 800 subgroups comprising adults in the Scottish population with price elasticities and an epidemiological model. Deprivation is measured using quintiles of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Drinker group is categorised as moderate (<14 units/week, 1 UK unit = 8 g ethanol), hazardous (>14 to ≤35/ ≤50 units/week for women/men), and harmful (>35/50 units/week for women/men). The policy appraisal estimates that, compared to retaining Scotland's MUP at £0.50, increasing the MUP to £0.65 leads to an estimated 12.0% decrease in alcohol consumption, 2.1% decrease in alcohol spending, 3,385 fewer deaths overall, and 2,578 fewer deaths wholly attributable to alcohol over 20 years. Estimated effects are largest in the quintile of the population living in the most deprived areas. Increasing the MUP to £0.65 is also estimated to reduce the proportion of drinkers consuming at harmful levels by 29.4% and the proportion consuming at hazardous levels by 8.0%. Key limitations of the study include relying on data on alcohol consumption and spending collected before the COVID-19 pandemic, synthesising consumption and spending data from separate datasets, and assuming no supply-side responses (e.g., price changes above the MUP threshold).

Increasing the threshold of an established MUP can lead to additional reductions in alcohol consumption, related harm, and health inequalities. Benefits accrue particularly to the most deprived and heaviest drinkers.