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Spatial Distribution of Diaphorina citri and Climate Suitability Prediction Using the MaxEnt Model in Indonesia
Abstract:
<b>Background and Objective:</b> <i>Diaphorina citri</i>, the Asian citrus psyllid (ACP), is a major vector of Huanglongbing disease in citrus worldwide and controlling this pest in citrus production regions is vital. Effective management requires regular monitoring-mapping its population distribution can support targeted surveillance and control strategies. Conventional population mapping faces challenges, but the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) offers a valuable predictive tool. This study examined the distribution of ACP in Indonesia and predicted its potential distribution based on local climate suitability using the MaxEnt model. <b>Materials and Methods:</b> Field surveys were conducted over two consecutive years, from January, 2022 to December, 2023, in major citrus-producing regions of Indonesia, particularly Bali, Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan. Occurrence data were supplemented with information from published literature. The MaxEnt model was developed using 19 bioclimatic factors and altitude data for Indonesia over 30 years (1970-2000). <b>Results:</b> The ACP was found in at least 38 citrus-producing areas across Indonesia. The MaxEnt model demonstrated excellent performance, with a Receiver Operating Characteristic/Area Under the Curve (ROC/AUC) value of 0.917 and identified seven dominant factors related to temperature, rainfall and altitude. Suitability for ACP was predicted to be high in Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara, while other regions were predicted to have moderate to low suitability. <b>Conclusion:</b> Overall, ACP is widely distributed in Indonesia and the MaxEnt modeling effectively reflects its current distribution pattern and enables the prediction of its potential range.

