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Predictive analysis of birth intention using machine learning.

Hyun Kyoung Kim1

  • 1Department of Nursing, Kongju National University, Gongju, South Korea.

Journal of Investigative Medicine : the Official Publication of the American Federation for Clinical Research
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This study used machine learning to predict birth intention, finding that maternal stress, relationship satisfaction, and partner conflict are key factors. Understanding these predictors can help support families.

Keywords:
birthmachine learningmotherspregnancypsychological stress

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Area of Science:

  • Reproductive Health
  • Machine Learning in Healthcare
  • Sociology of Family

Background:

  • Birth intention is a critical factor in reproductive decision-making.
  • Identifying predictors of birth intention is essential for effective family planning and support.
  • Previous research has explored various demographic and psychosocial factors, but predictive modeling remains an active area.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify key determinants of birth intention.
  • To develop and evaluate a machine learning model for predicting future birth intention.
  • To classify individuals at risk for specific birth intentions.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of data from 2,580 subjects using the Korean Early Childhood Education & Care Panel (K-ECEC-P).
  • Application of machine learning techniques including decision tree, random forest classifier, and logistic regression.
  • Model performance evaluated using precision, accuracy, recall, F1-score, and area under the curve (AUC).

Main Results:

  • The Random Forest model achieved an AUC of 82%, demonstrating strong predictive performance.
  • Key predictors identified include marriage period, age, stress, prenatal weight, number of children, maternal rearing behavior, conflict with partner, marriage satisfaction, depression, and type of birth.
  • Maternal psychological status (stress, depression) and relational factors (conflict, satisfaction) were significant predictors.

Conclusions:

  • Machine learning models can effectively predict birth intention.
  • Maternal psychological well-being and relationship dynamics are crucial determinants of birth intention.
  • Family-centered care and social support addressing these factors are vital during the postpartum period.