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Development of Novel Predictive Scores for Obstetrical Risk Stratification in Adolescent Pregnancies: A Retrospective
Abdul Jabar Khudor1, Marius Alexandru Moga2, Oana Gabriela Dimienescu2
1Medicine PhD School, Transilvania University of Brasov, 500036 Brașov, Romania.
New scores, Cervical Ripening Ultrasound Index (CRUI) and ADOLESRISK, improve risk assessment for adolescent pregnancies. These tools enhance prediction of successful labor induction and major complications, aiming to reduce adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes globally.
Area of Science:
- Obstetrics and Gynecology
- Maternal-Fetal Medicine
- Adolescent Reproductive Health
Background:
- Adolescent pregnancies pose significant global health challenges with elevated maternal and neonatal complication risks.
- Existing obstetrical risk assessment tools are often inadequate for adolescents due to unique physiological factors.
- Novel predictive scores are needed for accurate risk stratification in this vulnerable population.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate new predictive scores tailored for obstetrical risk assessment in adolescent pregnancies.
- To improve the accuracy of predicting successful vaginal delivery and labor induction.
- To enhance the stratification of comprehensive obstetrical risks in adolescent mothers.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective study of 1322 adolescent pregnancies (ages 12-16) in Brasov County, Romania (2018-2024).
- Development of the Cervical Ripening Ultrasound Index (CRUI) and ADOLESRISK score.
- Statistical analysis including logistic regression, ROC analysis, and internal validation (70-30% train-test split).
Main Results:
- CRUI score showed superior prediction for labor induction (AUC=0.87) versus Bishop score (AUC=0.62).
- ADOLESRISK score achieved 84% sensitivity and 76% specificity for major obstetrical complications.
- Validated performance in an independent cohort (CRUI AUC=0.85, ADOLESRISK AUC=0.82).
Conclusions:
- CRUI and ADOLESRISK scores offer advanced tools for personalized risk assessment in adolescent obstetrics.
- Implementation may reduce maternal complications by 25-30% and neonatal complications by 20-25%.
- These scores represent a significant advancement for global adolescent reproductive health.
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