Interannual Variability in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Challenges Post-Restoration Net Sink Predictions in California...

Globally, wetlands can sequester and store large amounts of soil carbon over the long term due to high primary productivity and slow decomposition. Yet centuries of drainage for agriculture and development have turned many of these carbon sinks into greenhouse gas (GHG) sources. Restoring degraded wetlands, particularly in peat-rich landscapes, is increasingly promoted as a nature-based solution for climate change mitigation. However, the trajectory and timing of recovery remain uncertain, especially given the complex interplay among vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and GHG fluxes. In this study, we analyzed 44 site-years of continuous eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) fluxes from restored wetlands in California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Our findings reveal substantial interannual variability in GHG exchange across sites, driven by differences in restoration design, water management, and vegetation establishment. While rapid vegetation growth, especially dense stands of macrophytes, can enhance CO₂ uptake, it often elevates CH₄ emissions and complicates predictions of when wetlands become net GHG sinks. Crucially, wetlands with delayed vegetation establishment due to high or inconsistent water levels (e.g., significant drawdown) remained persistent GHG sources, even years after restoration. Conversely, sites with tailored planting or natural and rapid recolonization exhibited earlier transitions to net sink status, including earlier shifts towards net negative radiative forcing since the restoration. The study highlights the importance of adaptive, site-specific restoration strategies and long-term monitoring to capture switchover dynamics from sources to sinks. As global investment in wetland restoration grows, our findings underscore the need to balance climate mitigation goals with ecological realities and the self-designing processes of vegetation succession.