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Field Collection and Laboratory Maintenance of Canopy-Forming Giant Kelp to Facilitate Restoration

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Navigating the unknown: Nature-based solutions for coastal climate adaptation under deep uncertainty.

Haye H Geukes¹, Eva S Visser², Elena V Bondarouk³

¹Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands.

Journal of Environmental Management

|January 10, 2026

Summary

Nature-based solutions (NbS) offer adaptive coastal adaptation but face long-term uncertainty. Deep uncertainty impacts NbS planning, limiting their effectiveness and increasing investment risks over time.

Keywords:

Adaptation planning Adaptive governance Environmental decision-making Risk society theory Sand nourishment Sea-level rise

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Climate Change Adaptation
Coastal Management

Background:

Coastal adaptation strategies are crucial for managing climate change impacts.
Nature-based solutions (NbS) present multifunctional alternatives to traditional hard-engineered defenses.
Limited adoption of NbS is observed despite their potential benefits under uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate how deep uncertainty influences the planning and management of nature-based solutions for coastal adaptation.
To identify specific uncertainties affecting decision-making processes for NbS adoption.
To explore the implications of these uncertainties for the long-term viability of NbS.

Main Methods:

Conducted unstructured and semi-structured interviews with Dutch experts in coastal NbS, adaptation, and decision-making under deep uncertainty.
Categorized identified topics of deep uncertainty into system understanding, outcome probabilities, and outcome prioritization.
Analyzed the interactions between deep uncertainty and NbS characteristics.

Main Results:

Key uncertainties include the rate of sea-level rise and political acceptance of flood risk.
NbS show promise as adaptive, multifunctional short-term interventions.
Long-term NbS potential is constrained by uncertainties in climate impacts, performance, conflicting functions, and risk acceptance.

Conclusions:

The adaptivity and multifunctionality of NbS, while beneficial short-term, introduce long-term uncertainty and risks of lock-in.
Effective coastal adaptation requires integrating political and technical scenario planning to navigate NbS trade-offs.
Balancing uncertain multifunctionality with predictable flood prevention is vital for resilient long-term coastal management.