A framework for strategic transformation of vacant lots for heat resilience

The transformative potential of vacant lots in urban neighborhoods is substantial. While these spaces often contribute to heat retention, reduced social cohesion, and environmental degradation, they can also provide ideally located infill opportunities for cooling interventions and resilience planning within cities. We developed a Heat-Strategic Vacant Parcel Conversion (HSVPC) framework that guides decision-making at the parcel level by considering zoning constraints, land use context, and ownership factors to systematically identify solution spaces. Our study gathered ground-truthed data on vacant lot locations, ownership, and the regulatory environment to apply the HSVPC framework in practice. Using this framework, we analyzed options for converting vacant parcels into green spaces, such as parks and community gardens, and simulated their potential impacts. The results demonstrate that strategically targeted, parcel-level interventions can reduce urban heat and promote measurable change in underused municipally-owned simulated conversions, even when limited and focused in scope. The simulated greening (tree planting) findings resulted in notable decrease by up to 6.44°C Mean Radiant Temperature (MRT) overall and 4.87 °C at peak heat, offering greater cooling effects during the day due to shading, and impacting the most socially vulnerable neighborhoods. Converting vacant lots into green spaces using the HSCPV framework can significantly improve heat resilience and support healthier, more sustainable communities, especially in the hottest urban areas of greatest exposure and vulnerability. Urban planners can apply the HSVPC framework to create strategic scenarios that optimize heat-resilient interventions, especially under resource constraints, identifying real-world spaces ideally suited for transformations at the parcel scale.