Potential Distribution Pattern and Ecological Suitability Analysis of Hippophae Tibetana Schltdl in China Based on...

Hippophae tibetana Schltdl, a valuable plant with significant edible, medicinal, and ecological restoration functions, has long attracted considerable attention. This study, based on the MaxEnt model, combines current and future climate scenarios (2050s and 2070s) to predict the distribution of suitable habitats for H. tibetana. The results demonstrated that the spatial distribution patterns of H. tibetana are primarily governed by the combined effects of key environmental factors, including elevation gradient, annual precipitation variation, and mean annual temperature fluctuation. Modeling results demonstrate that H. tibetana currently occupies 157.62 × 10⁴ km² of suitable habitats, showing high concentration in three key zones: (1) Qinghai's eastern-southwestern belt, (2) Gansu's southeastern/Sichuan's western-southeastern corridor, and (3) Tibet's eastern-southwestern quadrant. Under future climate scenarios, with increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, the suitable habitats for Hippophae are generally expected to expand northeastward, particularly in high-altitude and northwestern regions where the environment becomes more favorable. However, in some extreme climate scenarios, significant changes in temperature and precipitation could have negative effects on the growth and expansion of Hippophae. The study suggests that climate change may drive H. tibetana to expand into more suitable areas, but it may also lead to the reduction or migration of suitable habitats in some regions. Therefore, future ecological conservation and planting plans for Hippophae should fully consider the impact of climate change and adopt flexible adaptive management strategies to ensure its sustainable development in the context of climate change.