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Dynamic interdependence between consumer confidence and housing prices: Evidence from bootstrap rolling window

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Consumer confidence (CC) and housing prices (HP) have a dynamic, two-way relationship. Causality direction shifts with economic conditions, impacting housing market stability and policy needs.

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Behavioral Finance
  • Econometrics

Background:

  • The interplay between consumer confidence and housing prices is complex and warrants further investigation.
  • Understanding this relationship is crucial for economic stability and policy formulation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the bidirectional causality between consumer confidence (CC) and housing prices (HP).
  • To analyze how economic conditions and participant behavior influence the direction of causality.
  • To explore the asymmetric impact of housing price fluctuations on consumer confidence.

Main Methods:

  • Employed a bootstrap sub-sample rolling causality test.
  • Analyzed the dynamic and time-varying nature of the CC-HP relationship.

Main Results:

  • Confirmed a dynamic, bidirectional relationship between CC and HP.
  • Found that causality direction is contingent upon prevailing economic conditions and market participant behaviors.
  • Observed that rising CC can drive HP up, while housing can act as a hedge asset during economic uncertainty, also increasing HP.
  • Demonstrated that HP fluctuations have an asymmetric effect on CC, boosting it through wealth effects but potentially reducing it via affordability constraints and mortgage burdens.

Conclusions:

  • The linkage between CC and HP is reciprocal and time-varying.
  • Adaptive policy responses are essential to manage economic turbulence and stabilize housing and consumer confidence markets.