Benchmarking co-folding methods to predict the structures of covalent protein-ligand complexes

Targeted covalent inhibitors (TCIs) are emerging as a new modality in drug discovery because of their strong binding affinity and prolonged target engagement. However, the rational design of TCIs remains a significant challenge and is hindered by the lack of methods that accurately predict the structures of covalent protein-ligand complexes. Recent advances in co-folding approaches have made substantial strides in modeling complex biomolecular structures. Despite significant progress, their performance profiles for predicting the structures of covalent protein-ligand complexes remain largely unexplored because of the absence of rigorous benchmarks. Here, we introduce CoFD-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark dataset comprising 218 recently resolved covalent complexes designed to systematically evaluate both classical docking methods (AutoDock-GPU, CovDock, and GNINA) and deep learning co-folding models (AlphaFold3 (AF3), Chai-1, and Boltz-1x). Our results demonstrate that co-folding methods achieve superior ligand RMSD accuracy and protein-ligand interaction recovery. However, their performance markedly declines for novel pocket-ligand pairs. In contrast, classical docking methods exhibit stable but modest performance, which is primarily limited by target conformations. Furthermore, computational efficiency evaluations show that co-folding methods are slower than classical approaches, posing challenges for large-scale predictions. We also reveal that AF3 has the potential to identify native covalent residues through noncovalent co-folding, with a ligand RMSD comparable to that of covalent co-folding. These findings offer a possible route to explore covalent binding without prior specification of reactive residues, which are often unknown in real-world scenarios. Our study provides crucial insights and new opportunities for future co-folding-based TCI design, informing future model applications and improvements. CoFD-Bench offers rigorous evaluation criteria, diverse docking scenarios, and various methodological baselines, positioning it as an important benchmark for future model development and assessment.