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Related Concept Videos

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  1. Home
  3. Research Domains
  5. Built Environment And Design
  7. Urban And Regional Planning
  9. Urban Informatics
  11. Integrating Land Use Dynamics And Human Health Risk: A Multi-scale Assessment Of Future Urban Heat Exposure Using Plus And Explainable Ai.
  1. Home
  3. Research Domains
  5. Built Environment And Design
  7. Urban And Regional Planning
  9. Urban Informatics
  11. Integrating Land Use Dynamics And Human Health Risk: A Multi-scale Assessment Of Future Urban Heat Exposure Using Plus And Explainable Ai.

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Integrating land use dynamics and human health risk: A multi-scale assessment of future urban heat exposure using PLUS and explainable AI.

Yiwen Zhu1, Yi Zhu2, Xun Liang3

  • 1School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, Hubei Province, China.

Journal of Environmental Management
|January 13, 2026

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Urban heat islands (UHIs) are intensified by urbanization. This study used the PLUS and SHAP models to find that smaller-scale land use patterns significantly impact UHIs, with urban areas increasing heat while water offers cooling benefits.

Keywords:
Land use change simulationMachine learning interpretation methodPopulation heat exposureSpatial scale analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Urban Planning
  • Geographic Information Systems

Background:

  • Urban heat islands (UHIs) present a significant environmental challenge due to rapid urbanization, increasing heat exposure risks for city dwellers.
  • Previous research established links between land use and UHIs, but quantitative assessments of multi-scale land use impacts are limited.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantitatively assess the differential impacts of multiple land use types on urban heat islands across various spatial scales.
  • To predict future UHI patterns using an integrated modeling approach under different land use scenarios.
  • To identify optimal spatial scales for land use influences on UHI intensity.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model integrated with the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method.
Urban heat island effect
  • Implemented the framework in Wuhan, China, to analyze land use influences on UHI intensity at multiple spatial scales.
  • Conducted temporal analysis from 2005 to 2022 to track changes in land use impacts on UHI.

    • Main Results:

    • Land use patterns at scales of 390m and below significantly impact UHI intensity; fine-scale effects are minimal.
    • Water bodies provide substantial cooling, but their effect diminishes rapidly with distance. Vegetation cooling is limited by fragmentation.
    • Temporal analysis revealed a decline in water's mitigation effect (-7.6%) and an increase in urban areas' intensifying influence (+10.6%) from 2005-2022.

    Conclusions:

    • Enhancing vegetation connectivity and maintaining proximity between urban areas and water bodies can effectively mitigate UHI effects.
    • Optimizing land use patterns and organization can reduce heat exposure for over a million people.
    • Findings highlight the potential for policy interventions to improve urban thermal environments.