Ghost gun recovery and firearm deaths in California, 2014-2023

We investigated whether ghost gun recovery rates are significantly associated with firearm mortality rates in the following year across California's 58 counties from 2014 to 2023.

We obtained yearly county-level data on ghost guns recovered in California from The Trace's Gun Violence Data Hub. County-level firearm death counts (total, suicide and homicide) were pulled from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Restricted-Use Vital Statistics Data. Spatiotemporal models quantified the covariate-adjusted associations between ghost gun recoveries per capita and firearm death rates (total, suicide and homicide) in the following year. Secondary analyses examined suicide and homicide models stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. RESULTS : For every 20 ghost guns recovered per 100 000 population, there was an associated 6.4% increase in firearm suicide rate (adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR): 1.064, 95% credible interval (CrI) 1.019 to 1.111) in the following year. We found no evidence of a significant ghost gun recovery association with total firearm death rate (aIRR: 1.036, 95% CrI 0.999 to 1.075) and firearm homicide rates (aIRR: 1.002, 95% CrI 0.946 to 1.064). Stratified models for firearm suicide rates suggested variations across sex and racial/ethnic groups, with significant positive associations observed for male (6.5% increase; aIRR: 1.065, 95% CrI 1.017 to 1.115), non-Hispanic white (6.2% increase; aIRR: 1.062, 95% CrI 1.005 to 1.122) and Hispanic (12.6% increase; aIRR: 1.126, 95% CrI 1.031 to 1.230) individuals. A different pattern emerged for firearm homicide death rates, where associations across demographic groups were not statistically significant.

Practitioners concentrating on suicide prevention efforts should be advised about the threat that ghost guns may present.