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Abdoulaye Sow1, Cherif Diallo2, Hocine Cherifi3

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This study introduces a new infectious disease model (SEIRW-VN) that integrates human networks, environmental spread, and vaccination. The model accurately predicts COVID-19 dynamics, showing that combined interventions are most effective for public health.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

  • Understanding infectious disease spread necessitates models incorporating human contact networks and environmental factors.
  • Classical homogeneous epidemic models often fail to capture realistic disease dynamics.
  • Integrating network heterogeneity, environmental transmission, and vaccination is crucial for accurate epidemic forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and validate SEIRW-VN, a generalized epidemic framework.
  • To assess the impact of network structure, environmental persistence, and vaccination on disease spread.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of combined public health interventions.

Main Methods:

  • Development of the SEIRW-VN (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-With environmental transmission and Vaccination Network) model.
  • Application of the model to COVID-19 data from European countries.
  • Comparison with classical homogeneous epidemic models.
  • Simulation of various intervention strategies (non-pharmaceutical measures, vaccination).

Main Results:

  • The SEIRW-VN model demonstrated superior performance over homogeneous models in capturing realistic epidemic peaks and timing.
  • Highly connected individuals were identified as key drivers of outbreak sustainment.
  • Environmental transmission was found to contribute significantly (up to 25%) to overall infections, prolonging epidemic duration.
  • Combined non-pharmaceutical measures and vaccination showed synergistic effects, significantly reducing peak incidence and overall disease burden.

Conclusions:

  • The SEIRW-VN model provides a more realistic framework for understanding infectious disease transmission.
  • Environmental persistence and human contact structure are critical factors influencing epidemic dynamics.
  • Integrated public health strategies combining non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination are essential for effective disease control.