[Energy Transition Pathway Toward Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality: Taking Zhejiang Province of China as an Example]

The realization of the "dual carbon" goals in Zhejiang Province， as the first demonstration region of common prosperity in China， is of great significance to the construction of China's ecological civilization. Based on the economic development and energy supply and demand of Zhejiang Province， a LEAP model was constructed to explore the energy transition pathway of Zhejiang Province. The results showed that in the low-carbon transition scenario， Zhejiang Province will have an obvious transition effect， but it will fail to achieve the "dual carbon" goals as scheduled. Through strengthening low-carbon measures， Zhejiang Province will reach a carbon peak of 592 million tons in 2030， and the carbon emission will drop to 510 million tons in 2060， so as to achieve the "dual carbon" goal as scheduled. The electricity substitution on the demand side and the clean substitution on the supply side will constitute the key pathway of energy transition. In the short term， the effect of clean power production is the most significant. Through the orderly decommissioning of coal power； the blending of biomass or green ammonia； and the deployment of carbon capture， utilization， and storage technology and other low-carbon reconstruction， the cumulative emission reduction will reach 828 million tons. In the long run， the upgrade of the manufacturing industry is the most significant， with a cumulative emission reduction of 763 million tons. Accelerating the electrification of transportation will effectively reduce emissions in both the short and long term， and the cumulative emission reduction will reach 648 million tons. The research results can provide useful reference for the energy transition of Zhejiang Province.