[Analysis of Carbon Footprint and Emission Reduction Path of a Science and Technology Park]

Science and technology parks play a pivotal role in national technological innovation. In the context of China's goals for emission peaking and carbon neutrality， assessing their carbon footprints and pathways to emission peaking is essential for fostering economic development and facilitating the low-carbon transition. This study established a carbon footprint accounting framework for science and technology parks and applied it to a high-tech and advanced manufacturing park in Beijing as a case study. A refined modeling of key energy-related emission sources was conducted， followed by a dynamic carbon footprint analysis from 2011 to 2023 based on first-hand activity data. Future emission peaking pathways were projected using scenario analysis and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition， with corresponding low-carbon development strategies proposed. The results indicate that：① The carbon footprint （measured in CO₂-eq） increased from 67 748.93 tons in 2011 to 174 615.45 tons in 2023， with Scope 1 emissions peaking at 16 422.44 tons in 2020， approximately 90% of which came from stationary combustion sources. Scope 2 emissions declined to 37.52% of total emissions by 2023 after peaking at 69 475.74 tons in 2018， and Scope 3 emissions， the largest and fastest-growing component， accounted for 55.27% in 2023， primarily driven by workforce expansion and related factors. ② Scenario analysis suggested that the green low-carbon scenario offered the highest emission reduction potential， enabling the park to peak at 175 200.20 tons by 2026， while the baseline scenario projected a peak of 188 413.33 tons in 2028， and the industrial expansion scenario failed to peak by 2030， reaching 216 410.39 tons. The increase in the carbon footprint of the park across all three scenarios was primarily driven by the amount of purchased electricity， the number of employees， and carbon emissions associated with employee travel； thus， to mitigate these impacts， future science and technology parks should focus on strengthening energy efficiency management while enhancing digitalization and intelligent park operations as well as promoting green transportation， whereas the decarbonization of electricity consumption and the reduction in fuel-powered vehicles have already curbed carbon emissions to some extent， which can be further reinforced by increasing the share of clean energy and optimizing low-carbon transportation systems.