[Multi-scenario Prediction and Ecological Security Pattern Construction Based on InVEST-PLUS Model: A Case Study of...

Taking policy factors into account in constructing an ecological security pattern is of great significance in helping to realize the ecological civilization strategy. Taking Liaoning Province as an example， the study adopts a research framework of "core-regional-strip-multi-point" based on five land use data sets from 2000 to 2020 and couples the InVEST-PLUS model to predict the land use and carbon storage in the SN， SW， CLD， and SE scenarios for the year 2030. The study then combines the MSPA and MCR models to construct an ecological security pattern and proposes new ideas for ecological construction. The results showed that： ① The land use prediction results indicated that land use was mainly composed of farmland and forests. The farmland area decreased slowly， and the forest area increased continuously from 2000 to 2030. ② The spatial distribution of carbon storage was mainly in the east， and the eastern region was a key protected forest area. The trend of carbon storage in the eastern region was relatively stable， while the carbon storage in the western region continued to increase. ③ The ecological security network structure in the SE scenario was complex and highly connected， identifying 30 ecological source areas， 97 discontinuities， 56 ecological corridors with a total length of 211 km， and a northeastern-southeastern strip-shaped extension pattern with dense networks in the middle and western regions and sparse networks in the eastern coastal areas. ④ Comparing the structure and connectivity of the ecological security network in different scenarios， the study selected the SE scenario and proposed the "one core， three regions， three belts， and multiple points" ecological security pattern construction strategy. It also proposed ecological management policy recommendations to promote sustainable development in Liaoning Province.