Identifying Conservation and Conflict Zones for Tibetan Brown Bears Under Climate Change Through Integrated Habitat...

As climate change accelerates ecosystem transformation across high-altitude landscapes, understanding the shifting dynamics of predator-prey interactions becomes increasingly critical for conserving apex carnivores. To evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of potential habitats for the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) under future climate change scenarios, our study integrates the distribution patterns of its primary natural prey across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. We aim to identify suitable habitats and potential human-bear conflict hotspots by coupling predator-prey ecological relationships with environmental drivers, thereby providing a refined understanding of habitat suitability and conservation risk under climate-induced landscape change. We employed the MaxEnt model combined with multi-source environmental variables to predict the potential habitats of the brown bear under different climate scenarios. To capture the influence of prey distribution and habitat overlap, three ecological relationship scenarios were designed: (S1) ideal distribution range; (S2) stepping stone; and (S3) potential human-bear conflict area. These scenarios were simulated and compared to examine the influence of prey availability and habitat configuration on brown bear habitat dynamics and conflict vulnerability under climate change. We found that, according to model projections under the RCP4.5 scenario, suitable habitat for the Tibetan brown bear is expected to decline by 16.78%, with core habitats contracting and shifting toward central and western Xizang and southern Qinghai. Marmots showed stable distributions with centroid shifts, maintaining Qinghai as the core area. In contrast, pikas were highly sensitive to land-use changes, with potential habitat losses of 44.47% and 89.39% in the plateau margins of Sichuan and Yunnan provinces under the RCP8.5 scenario. S3 is projected to expand by 17.03% under RCP4.5, posing additional conservation challenges. The results highlight growing risks of habitat fragmentation and increased human-wildlife conflicts. We proposed a regionally coordinated conservation framework centered on "core habitat protection-connectivity enhancement-conflict mitigation" to address these emerging threats under climate change.