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Risk Factors for Adult Axial Length Elongation: A 5-Year Population-Based Cohort Study
Taiga Inooka1, Yuki Kimura1, Shota Fujikawa1
1Department of Ophthalmology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan.
Ophthalmology Science
|January 14, 2026
Summary
Adult axial length (AL) elongation is uncommon. Risk factors for severe AL elongation include longer baseline AL, greater asymmetry, myopic maculopathy, and female sex, informing health-check follow-up decisions.
Area of Science:
- Ophthalmology
- Biometry
- Public Health
Background:
- Adult axial length (AL) elongation is linked to pathological outcomes.
- Population-based longitudinal data on AL elongation and risk profiling are limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the prevalence and annual rate of AL elongation in adults.
- To identify independent determinants of AL elongation in a health-check cohort.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 4016 adults (8032 eyes) from a Japanese health-check program with a median follow-up of 5.31 years.
- Annual AL change estimated using linear regression; severity classified as severe, moderate, mild, or nil.
- Ordinal logistic regression and pair-level change-point analysis used to identify determinants and critical AL thresholds.
Main Results:
- 98.6% of eyes showed nil or mild AL elongation; moderate and severe elongation were rare (1.3% and 0.2%).
- Determinants of greater AL elongation severity included longer baseline AL (OR 1.34), larger interocular AL difference (OR 7.18), myopic maculopathy (OR 2.79), and female sex (OR 3.05).
- A change-point analysis indicated an intersection near 28.56 mm in the longer eye, above which faster elongation became more probable.
Conclusions:
- Adult AL elongation is generally uncommon and slow.
- Risk is concentrated in individuals with longer baseline AL, greater axial asymmetry, myopic maculopathy, and in females.
- These findings can guide follow-up strategies in health-check settings, with specific AL thresholds potentially aiding risk stratification.
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