Detection of Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics in Communities Using Joint Species Distribution Models

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Computational Biology

Background:

• Metacommunity biodiversity is shaped by environmental, spatial, biotic, and stochastic factors.
• These factors influence species evolution via local selection and connectivity (gene flow, genetic drift).
• Existing Joint Species Distribution Models (JSDMs) do not account for contemporary evolutionary change.

Purpose of the Study:

• To adapt JSDMs to analyze ecological communities experiencing contemporary trait evolution.
• To partition variance attributed to environmental, spatial, and evolving phenotypic drivers.
• To estimate site- and time-specific covariances in ecological communities.

Main Methods:

• Application of a modified JSDM to simulated and experimental populations.
• Analysis of community composition data incorporating trait evolution.
• Estimation of variance partitioning and site-specific covariance.

Main Results:

• The JSDM successfully partitioned variance from environmental, spatial, and evolving phenotypic drivers.
• The model estimated site- and time-specific covariances.
• Model-estimated effect sizes of trait evolution were used to test mechanistic drivers of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Conclusions:

• JSDMs can be extended to include contemporary evolutionary processes.
• The adapted JSDM provides a framework for understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics.
• This approach allows for testing hypotheses about the drivers of community change over time.