Generalized Mechanism Model for Ecosystem Hysteresis

Ecosystem hysteresis, the occurrence of catastrophic transitions due to external disturbances, is a prevalent phenomenon in dynamic ecosystems. Understanding hysteresis is essential for predicting ecosystem responses and developing effective restoration strategies. However, the intrinsic dynamics quantifying the positive-negative feedback in driving hysteresis and its intensity remain undisclosed. We introduce a quantitative framework to address hysteresis by assessing ecosystem states and feedback loops, which diverges from prior phenomenological theories of hysteresis. Employing this framework, a generalized mechanism model is proposed to estimate positive-negative feedback strengths and defines the irreversible potential of hysteresis to determine its intensity. We identify a dimensionless critical constant that indicates whether hysteresis occurs. The model effectively captures both forward and backward trajectories of hysteresis across various ecological scales. The direction of state transitions may be predicted using unidirectional data. Our findings offer a universal framework for predicting and mitigating catastrophic state shifts of ecosystems.