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Updated: Jan 15, 2026
Mouse Model for Pancreas Transplantation Using a Modified Cuff Technique
Published on: December 16, 2017
Opioid Use as a Predictor of Pancreas Transplant Outcomes
Youngmin Ko1, Eunbyeol Cho2, Hye Eun Kwon1
1Division of Kidney and Pancreas Transplantation, Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Background:
Posttransplant opioid dependence has been linked to adverse outcomes in solid organ transplantation, but its impact on pancreas transplantation is underexplored.
Methods:
This retrospective study analyzed 193 PTA/PAK recipients from Asan Medical Center (AMC) (2010-2022) and externally validated results in 77 recipients from Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital (PNUYH) (2015-2022). Posttransplant opioid dependence was defined as ≥ 10 opioid prescriptions between 3 and 12 months posttransplant. Logistic regression and three ML algorithms (CatBoost, XGBoost, and LightGBM) were used to identify risk factors and predict 5-year graft survival.
Results:
Posttransplant opioid dependence (OR 2.87, p = 0.005) independently predicted 5-year graft failure, along with pre-transplant retinopathy, bladder drainage, and lower BMI. ML models showed favorable internal AUROC (0.695-0.719) and moderate external AUROC (0.649-0.671). Opioid dependence consistently ranked among top predictive features across models.
Conclusions:
Posttransplant opioid dependence is a significant predictor of graft failure after pancreas transplantation. Incorporating this variable into ML models may enhance risk stratification and candidate selection.
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