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Mathematical modelling of oncolytic vaccinia virus therapy highlights neutrophil impact on tumour suppression

Sahaj Satani1, Arjan Suri1, Hana Dobrovolny1

  • 1Department of Physics & Astronomy, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX, USA.

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|January 15, 2026
PubMed

Insights

Oncolytic vaccinia viruses (OVVs) show promise for melanoma, but long-term results are poor. Combining OVVs with neutrophil depletion may enhance treatment by promoting viral persistence and tumor eradication.

Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Virology
  • Mathematical Biology

Background:

  • Oncolytic vaccinia viruses (OVVs) are a potential melanoma treatment, selectively targeting and destroying tumor cells.
  • Current OVV therapies face challenges with achieving durable long-term outcomes in patients.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of neutrophil depletion on the efficacy of OVV therapy in B16-F10 melanoma mouse models.
  • To develop and utilize a mathematical model to characterize OVV-tumor dynamics and the role of neutrophils.

Main Methods:

  • Employed an ordinary differential equation model to simulate tumor growth under OVV inhibition.
  • Incorporated neutrophil-mediated viral clearance into the mathematical model.
  • Analyzed model parameters to understand factors influencing OVV treatment effectiveness.

Main Results:

  • The model accurately reflects experimental data, accounting for neutrophil-mediated viral clearance.
  • Identified two stable states: complete tumor eradication (disease-free) and chronic infection (tumor control).
  • Demonstrated that combining OVV treatment with neutrophil depletion shifts the system from chronic infection to a disease-free state, enhancing therapeutic outcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Neutrophil modulation, specifically depletion, significantly enhances OVV efficacy in melanoma treatment.
  • Effective OVV therapy is associated with a lower viral clearance rate, suggesting prolonged viral activity is beneficial.
  • Findings support the development of novel OVV-based cancer therapies incorporating neutrophil modulation strategies.
Keywords:
cancerimmune responsemathematical modelneutrophilsparameter estimation

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