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Using Single-Worm Data to Quantify Heterogeneity in Caenorhabditis elegans-Bacterial Interactions
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Host heterogeneity and unpredictability in parasite outbreaks.

Jacob A Cohen1, Mark Viney1, Andy Fenton1

  • 1Department of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZB, United Kingdom.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|January 15, 2026
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Host heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectiousness impacts parasite transmission. While not directly affecting transmission rates, it increases epidemic variability and unpredictability, crucial for outbreak management.

Keywords:
host heterogeneityparasitestransmission

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology
  • Parasitology

Background:

  • Experimental studies on host heterogeneity in parasite transmission are limited.
  • Previous research often examines single host traits over one generation, leaving long-term consequences unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To experimentally assess the long-term effects of interacting host heterogeneities on parasite transmission.
  • To investigate how population-level heterogeneity influences parasite dynamics and predictability.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a laboratory system with red flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum) and the eugregarine parasite (Gregarina cloptoni).
  • Constructed experimental populations with varying proportions of heterogeneous beetle colonies.
  • Tracked parasite transmission over eight weeks and developed an agent-based model (ABM).

Main Results:

  • Population mean susceptibility and infectiousness, not heterogeneity, explained direct transmission differences.
  • Agent-based modeling revealed that higher heterogeneity led to greater between-simulation variability in epidemiological measures.
  • Host heterogeneities increase uncertainty in epidemiological predictability.

Conclusions:

  • Host heterogeneities do not directly alter parasite transmission rates but significantly increase epidemic variability.
  • This variability has substantial implications for outbreak management strategies.
  • Further research on host heterogeneity's impact on epidemic variability is essential.