BrDMrisc - Online Brazilian Risk Score for Incident Type 2 Diabetes - ELSA-Brasil Cohort

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Diabetes mellitus is a growing global health concern.
• Effective screening tools are crucial for early identification and intervention.
• Existing screening methods for diabetes risk may lack optimal predictive accuracy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce and evaluate the Brazilian Diabetes Risk Score (BrDMrisc) calculator.
• To assess BrDMrisc's performance in identifying individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in 10 years.
• To compare BrDMrisc with established diabetes screening approaches.

Main Methods:

• Development of BrDMrisc using 7.4-year follow-up data from the ELSA-Brasil cohort.
• Risk functions derived from socioeconomic, lifestyle, clinical, and laboratory variables.
• Comparative analysis of BrDMrisc's predictive capacity against traditional pre-diabetes screening strategies using baseline data and incident diabetes cases.

Main Results:

• BrDMrisc offers 27 versatile risk functions adaptable to various clinical and laboratory data combinations.
• A BrDMrisc function using clinical data and fasting glucose identified a smaller high-risk population (20.0%) with a higher diabetes risk (28.5%) compared to impaired fasting glucose screening (40.6% high risk, 17.1% diabetes risk).
• BrDMrisc demonstrates more favorable diagnostic properties than commonly recommended screening approaches.

Conclusions:

• The online BrDMrisc calculator is a versatile tool derived from a contemporary Brazilian cohort.
• BrDMrisc exhibits superior diagnostic properties compared to existing diabetes risk screening strategies.
• This tool provides an accessible and effective method for identifying individuals at high risk for future diabetes.