Temporal trends in abusive alcohol consumption and their projections for 2030 in Brazilian capitals

To analyze the temporal trend of the prevalence of abusive alcohol consumption in the Brazilian adult population residing in the country's capitals between 2006 and 2023, and to estimate projections for 2030.

Time-series study using data from the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey. Abusive alcohol consumption was defined as the intake of five or more drinks for men and four or more for women in a short period of time. The joinpoint regression model was used to identify trends, and exponential smoothing was applied to generate projections up to 2030.

We observed an increasing trend in abusive alcohol consumption in the total population (from 15.6% in 2006 to 20.8% in 2023) and among women, across most age groups - except those aged 18-24 and 45-54 years -, among individuals with 12 or more years of education, and among racial groups identified as white, Black, and mixed-race. Among women, we observed an increase in 23 capitals. Considering the trends between 2015 and 2023, the 10% reduction target by 2030 is unlikely to be achieved.

The increase in alcohol consumption among women and the failure to meet the reduction target highlight the need to advance policies and programs to curb alcohol consumption.