Trade and containment policies during COVID-19: Disaggregated evidence for adaptive public health governance

Containment policies, also known as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), are crucial in managing emerging infectious diseases; however, their broader economic, social, and health impacts remain insufficiently understood. Previous studies have largely relied on aggregate indices, masking policy-specific effects and limiting their usefulness for preparedness and adaptive governance.

This study investigates how disaggregated containment measures affected international trade and the continuity of essential goods as a component of public health resilience. Using data from 182 countries during 2020-2021, we analyzed nine NPIs from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and international trade statistics across four product categories. Two indices, a conventional arithmetic mean and a novel entropy-weighted index, were constructed to capture policy intensity and cross-country heterogeneity. Panel regression models with fixed- and random-effects specifications were used to assess policy impacts.

Containment policies had heterogeneous effects on trade. Workplace closures were associated with trade resilience through digital adaptation, whereas stay-at-home orders and transport suspensions disrupted food and agricultural trade, revealing vulnerabilities in supply chains critical to health security. International travel restrictions correlated positively with goods trade, reflecting substitution from service- to goods-based activities. The entropy-weighted index outperformed the arithmetic mean by capturing policy variability, especially during 2020 early crisis phase.

Disaggregating NPIs reveals that policy design, timing, and institutional context shape both trade performance and health resilience. Integrating information-sensitive metrics such as entropy weighting can improve surveillance and preparedness frameworks. Policymakers should balance epidemiological effectiveness with the protection of essential trade flows to ensure equitable and adaptive pandemic governance.