Learning from experience: Depressive bias and updating beliefs about common life events

In this study we investigated the veracity of depressive cognitions and how they are updated over time in response to real-world environmental feedback. Participants (N = 372) with high and low depressive symptoms repeatedly predicted the likelihood of, and then reported on the occurrence of, common positive and negative life events occurring in the next month across three monthly intervals. Depressive symptoms were associated with predicting and experiencing fewer desirable outcomes. Depressive symptoms were also related to greater pessimistic bias, but only for positive events, and to decreased accuracy, but only for negative events. Unexpectedly, participants with elevated depressive symptoms were more likely to update their predictions in accord with feedback from the environment, particularly for positive events and when updating toward greater optimism. However, they also demonstrated a stronger oscillation pattern, being more likely to reverse their optimistic updates at the next timepoint. Participants high in depressive symptoms were less likely to reverse their predictions about negative events. This pattern of findings supports a depressive bias hypothesis (i.e., pessimistic bias increases as depressive symptoms increase) and provides new information about the stability of expectations about common positive and negative life events. Understanding the temporal dynamics of belief updating may help refine cognitive models of depression and inform interventions that target fragile expectations about positive experiences.