Asymmetric loneliness response to social connectedness around individual set points

This paper presents new evidence suggesting that the relationship between loneliness and social connectedness is regulated by individual social connectedness set points, i.e. levels of social connectedness that individuals consider satisfactory. Using data from the European Union Loneliness Survey (2022; N = 25,646), I find that loneliness exhibits a kinked relationship with connectedness: It decreases linearly when connectedness is below individual set points but remains consistently low regardless of additional social contact once this threshold is reached. This pattern, which holds across multiple loneliness measures, is consistent with predictions from homeostatic control models and the cognitive discrepancy model of loneliness. I further identify key determinants of individual set points for social connectedness, including social environment variables, childhood relationships, and passive social media use. The findings indicate that similar levels of social contact can produce different experiences of loneliness across individuals due to heterogeneity in social preferences. Effective loneliness interventions should consider both the availability of social connections and individual set points for social connectedness.