Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jan 18, 2026
TBase - an Integrated Electronic Health Record and Research Database for Kidney Transplant Recipients
Published on: April 13, 2021
Predicting the Future Burden of Renal Replacement Therapy in Türkiye Using National Registry Data and Comparative
Arzu Akgül1, Neriman Sıla Koç1, Berrak Itır Aylı2
1Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Ankara Etlik City Hospital, Ankara, Türkiye.
Background:
Chronic kidney disease is a growing public health problem worldwide, and the number of patients requiring renal replacement therapy is steadily increasing. Türkiye has experienced a similar rise in both the incidence and prevalence of renal replacement therapy over the past decades; however, national-level projections of future renal replacement therapy demand are lacking.
Aims:
This study aimed to forecast the future burden of renal replacement therapy in Türkiye by modeling historical incidence and prevalence trends using national registry data and demographic projections.
Methods:
National renal replacement therapy registry data from 2012 to 2024 were analyzed together with demographic projections from the Turkish Statistical Institute extending to 2035. Four models were constructed separately for incidence and prevalence. Model performance was compared using the coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and Akaike information criterion. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to assess model robustness. The modeling was further validated on data from Japan and the United Kingdom.
Results:
All models indicated a consistent upward trend in renal replacement therapy incidence in Türkiye over the next decade. By 2035, the prevalence of renal replacement therapy in Türkiye is projected to reach approximately 1150-1250 per million population. The models demonstrated strong goodness of fit, and cross-validation supported good internal consistency, although the machine-learning model showed some overfitting for prevalence.
Conclusion:
The national demand for renal replacement therapy in Türkiye is projected to continue increasing through 2035. Incorporating predictive modeling into national registry surveillance can help guide proactive capacity planning and fair resource distribution for dialysis and transplantation services. At the same time, public health strategies aimed at preventing and slowing the progression of chronic kidney disease remain essential to mitigate the growing burden of end-stage renal disease.
Related Concept Videos
01:28Drug Dosing in Renal Diseases: Estimation of Glomerular Filtration Rate Based on Serum Creatinine Concentration
01:25Drug Dosing in Renal Diseases: Dose Adjustments Based on Drug Clearance and Elimination Rate Constant
01:17Factors Affecting Renal Clearance: Renal Impairment
One condition associated with renal failure is uremia. Uremia is characterized by impaired glomerular filtration and fluid accumulation in the body. This condition hinders the renal clearance of drugs, resulting in drug accumulation and potential...
01:11Renal Failure: Dose Adjustments
Reduced renal clearance and elimination rate are common outcomes of renal impairment. These alterations lead to a prolonged elimination half-life and an altered apparent volume of distribution for drugs. As a result, dosage adjustments are typically necessary to maintain optimal drug levels in the body.
However, dosage adjustments...
01:30Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy
01:08Renal Drug Clearance: Comparison Between Renal Excretion Methods
Renal clearance is often associated with the renal glomerular filtration rate (GFR), which represents the rate at which plasma is filtered through the glomeruli in the kidney. When drug reabsorption is minimal and there is no active secretion, renal clearance is closely related to the...