Climate change impacts on Rhododendron diversity: Regional responses and conservation strategies in China

Over the past century, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have continuously increased global temperature and triggered climate change, significantly impacting species distributions and biodiversity patterns. Understanding how climate-driven shifts in species distributions reshape diversity patterns is crucial for formulating effective future conservation strategies. Based on the distribution data of 314 Rhododendron species in China, along with 16 environmental variables, we examined spatial diversity patterns and assessed regional and biome differences in species responses using ensembled species distribution models. Our results indicated that climatic variables significantly influenced species distributions, with ongoing climate change expected to concentrate Rhododendron distribution patterns and alter species composition. Regional topography played a critical role in shaping species responses to global warming. In the mountainous areas of southwestern China, species exhibited heightened sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, shifting upward as temperature increased. This region also had a higher proportion of threatened species and showed an overall contraction in primary distribution range. Conversely, in southern China, species were more influenced by precipitation, exhibiting a notable northward shift and expansion in primary distribution areas. Notably, alpine species, occurring in habitats above the treeline, may face severe survival risks due to the high degree of habitat loss and fragmentation. We identified seven priority conservation areas, predominantly situated in highly fragmented mountainous regions that were inadequately protected by existing nature reserves. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of changes in Rhododendron diversity patterns under climate change, providing valuable insights for developing comprehensive, flora-wide conservation plans in China.