Heart Failure Readmission Risk Factors: A Modified Delphi Panel Study.

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Health Services Research
• Clinical Informatics

Background:

• High heart failure (HF) readmission rates pose a global healthcare challenge.
• Existing predictive models often lack comprehensive clinical and patient/caregiver perspectives.
• Accurate risk prediction is crucial for timely interventions and improved patient outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a consensus-driven approach for identifying essential variables for HF readmission risk prediction algorithms.
• To integrate both clinical and patient/caregiver viewpoints into risk assessment.
• To establish a foundation for more accurate and comprehensive HF readmission prediction models.

Main Methods:

• A modified Delphi panel was convened, including clinicians and patient/caregiver partners from Alberta, Canada.
• A systematic literature review identified initial variables, which were then refined by the 13-member panel over three rounds.
• The panel reached consensus on variable associations with 30-day all-cause readmission risk post-HF hospitalization.

Main Results:

• A total of 99 variables were initially considered from literature and physician input.
• Consensus was reached on 61 variables significantly associated with HF readmission risk.
• Clinician ratings for consensus were higher than those of nonclinicians.

Conclusions:

• The study successfully identified 61 variables for HF readmission risk using a modified Delphi process.
• Incorporating clinician and patient/caregiver perspectives enhances the comprehensiveness of risk prediction.
• These findings support the development of improved HF management strategies and reduced readmission rates.