External validation of geriatric influenza death score: a prospective validation study

Area of Science:

• Geriatric Medicine
• Infectious Diseases
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Global population aging increases influenza risks for older adults.
• Age-related immunosenescence elevates severe influenza complications.
• Clinical decision-making for elderly influenza patients is challenging.

Purpose of the Study:

• To externally validate the Geriatric Influenza Death (GID) score.
• To assess the GID score's utility in predicting mortality in elderly influenza patients.
• To inform disposition decisions for older adults with influenza in the ED.

Main Methods:

• Prospective cohort study of geriatric patients (≥ 65 years) with influenza in the ED.
• Calculated GID score using clinical and laboratory data (e.g., coma, cancer history, CRP, bandemia).
• Assessed 30-day all-cause mortality and GID score performance using AUC.

Main Results:

• 120 patients were included; 30-day mortality increased with GID score.
• GID score ≥ 2 showed moderate performance in predicting mortality (AUC 0.66).
• Sensitivity and specificity for mortality prediction were 70.6% and 61.6%, respectively.

Conclusions:

• The GID score is a practical tool for predicting 30-day mortality in older ED patients with influenza.
• The GID score aids in informing disposition decisions for this population.
• External validation supports the GID score's clinical utility.