Quantitative analysis of landscape patterns and ecosystem services at multiple scales in hilly areas of Southern...

Understanding the scale-dependent mechanisms linking landscape patterns to ecosystem services is crucial for sustainable land management, especially in fragmented hilly regions. This study, conducted in the hilly areas of southern China, aimed to quantitatively unravel these mechanisms at an optimal spatial scale. We first identified 14,400 km² as the scale where landscape metrics stabilized. Using Spatial Error Models (SEM) to control for spatial autocorrelation, we analysed the distinct effects of landscape configuration on key ecosystem services. At the class level, forest aggregation was a consistent positive driver for multiple services; for example, it maintained a stable, significant positive relationship with carbon sequestration across all study years (P < 0.01). Conversely, farmland edge (total edge) significantly promoted nutrient export (P < 0.001), highlighting a functional contrast with natural landscapes. At the landscape level, total edge exhibited a consistent positive effect on several ecosystem services (P < 0.001), whereas increased landscape evenness was a primary inhibitory factor, showing a significant negative correlation with habitat quality (P < 0.001) and a strengthening negative effect on nutrient retention over time (P < 0.01). These findings provide a scale-specific, quantitative foundation for spatial planning, underscoring the necessity of maintaining forest connectivity and strategically managing agricultural-natural land interfaces to enhance ecosystem services bundles in heterogeneous landscapes.