Continuous Glucose Monitoring-Based Machine Learning Identification of Diurnal Glycemic Patterns and Diabetes...

To identify diurnal glycemic patterns in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM)-based machine learning and examine their association with diabetes distress, a key psychosocial outcome.

In this observational study, 137 adults with T2D wore blinded CGM (FreeStyle Libre Pro), yielding 1657 days of data. Glycemic patterns were identified using unsupervised machine learning via Gaussian mixture modeling, validated with Bayesian information criterion and silhouette scores. Diabetes distress was assessed with the 17-item Diabetes Distress Scale and analyzed through analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes duration, and glucose management indicator.

Clustering identified four distinct glycemic profiles: Cluster 1 (suboptimal control, nocturnal hypoglycemia; 15.8%), Cluster 2 (suboptimal control, nocturnal hyperglycemia; 27.1%), Cluster 3 (poorly controlled, prolonged hyperglycemia; 21.1%), and Cluster 4 (well controlled; 36.1%). Diabetes distress scores varied significantly: participants in Cluster 3 reported the highest distress (mean = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.99-2.76), while Cluster 4 reported the lowest (mean = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.48-1.86; P = .03). Effect sizes indicated differences corresponded to clinically meaningful categories of "little or no distress" vs "moderate distress."

CGM-based machine learning identified physiologically distinct glycemic phenotypes that were also associated with psychosocial burden. This work demonstrates the added value of integrating CGM-derived profiles with patient-reported outcomes. These findings highlight the potential of CGM phenotyping to support precision diabetes care by enabling early identification of high-risk subgroups, guiding tailored behavioral and psychosocial interventions, and informing technology-enabled decision tools that connect physiological monitoring with emotional well-being in T2D management.