Geospatial Mapping of Pediatric Febrile Illness in Uganda to Inform Precision Public Health Interventions

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Spatial analysis
• Public health

Background:

• Febrile illness is a major cause of child morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries.
• The spatial patterns and environmental causes of pediatric fever in Uganda are not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the prevalence of febrile illness in children under five in Uganda.
• To identify environmental, nutritional, and sociodemographic factors associated with pediatric fever.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of data from the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey.
• Application of a geostatistical binomial model for spatial prediction and analysis.
• Model performance evaluation using nrPIT and theoretical variograms.

Main Results:

• 35.1% of 14,195 children under five reported fever.
• Fever prevalence varied significantly by region and month, peaking in the east/northeast after the rainy season.
• Poverty, anemia, rainfall, vegetation index, and seasonality were significant predictors.

Conclusions:

• Pediatric febrile illness in Uganda exhibits significant geographic and temporal heterogeneity.
• Environmental and nutritional factors are key contributors to fever variation.
• Findings support tailored public health strategies and further research into fever causes.