Stranded assets in European agriculture during food system transformations

Dietary shifts, particularly reduced animal-sourced food (ASF) consumption in high-income countries, risk stranding substantial ASF-related assets. Linking agricultural and economic data to global multi-regional input-output models, we show that ASF assets represent 78% of EU27 + UK fixed agricultural assets, with €158 billion linked to livestock and €100 billion to feed production. We estimate that ASF reductions in EU27 + UK consumption of 9.5%, 60% and 100% could strand 18%, 50% and 77% of these assets, respectively. Current depreciation rates suggest there is generally sufficient time to phase out assets, offering pathways to limit stranding. Policy- and climate-induced stranding risks are intertwined and should both be incorporated into financial modelling as overlapping transition pressures. Given food producers' high exposure to stranding risks cascade throughout supply chains, integrated policy support to repurpose or phase out ASF-related assets is essential to avoid delays in sustainable food system transformations.