Modeling opioid use disorder in hand surgery patients

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Addiction Medicine

Background:

• Prescription opioids are a leading cause of misuse and overdose deaths, with nearly 300,000 deaths from 1999-2022.
• Hand surgery patients exhibit high rates of prolonged post-operative opioid use and opioid use disorder (OUD).

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and utilize a compartmental model to understand the progression from opioid exposure to OUD in hand surgery patients.
• To investigate the relationship between the quantity of opioid prescriptions and the risk of opioid abuse in this population.

Main Methods:

• A compartmental model was constructed to simulate opioid exposure and OUD development.
• The model was parameterized using empirical patient data from hand surgery populations.
• The model was used to explore the functional relationship between prescription numbers and opioid abuse risk.

Main Results:

• The study identified a non-linear relationship between the number of opioid prescriptions and the risk of developing opioid abuse.
• The specific risk associated with a given number of prescriptions varies based on the assumed opioid addiction risk curve.
• Findings highlight the nuanced impact of prescription quantity on OUD development.

Conclusions:

• Prescription patterns significantly influence the development of opioid use disorder in hand surgery patients.
• Understanding these relationships is crucial for developing targeted interventions to mitigate OUD risk.
• The study advances knowledge on how prescription quantity affects OUD trajectories.