A radiomics nomogram based on ultrasound for predicting ablation zone disappearance after microwave ablation in...

ObjectiveTo establish a predictive model based on ultrasound (US) radiomics to determine whether the ablation zone of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) disappears within 24 months after microwave ablation (MWA).Study designRetrospective study.MethodsThis study enrolled 201 PTMC patients who underwent MWA in Affiliated Beijing Friendship Hospital of Capital Medical University between January 2013 and September 2020. All patients were followed up at 1 h, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months after MWA. Radiomics features were extracted from the preoperative US images, and a Rad-score was constructed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen out the independent clinical factors associated with the disappearance of the ablation zone after MWA, and a radiomics nomogram was established to predict whether the ablation zone of PTMC disappeared within 24 months after MWA. The performance of the model was validated in the testing cohort.Results75.6% of patients achieved the ablation zone disappeared within 24 months after MWA. The disappearance rate was significantly associated with MWA energy and baseline lesion volume (p < 0.05). The US radiomics nomogram integrated Rad-score, MWA energy, and baseline lesion volume. In the testing cohort, the area under the curve of this nomogram outperformed that of the clinical model and the radiomics model (0.772 vs 0.714 and 0.679, respectively).ConclusionsThe nomogram based on US radiomics can reliably identify whether lesions of PTMC will disappear within 24 months after MWA. The nomogram is useful for screening optimal candidates for MWA and may assist clinicians and patients in choosing the best treatment option between MWA and surgery.