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  3. Conservation Should Assume Realistic Adaptive Capacities.
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  3. Conservation Should Assume Realistic Adaptive Capacities.

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Conservation should assume realistic adaptive capacities.

Mark C Urban1,2, Chris S Elphick1,2, Daniel I Bolnick1,2

  • 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|January 20, 2026

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Conservation plans often overlook species

Keywords:
climate changeevolutionary rescueevolvabilityglobal changeheritability

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Conservation science
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Conservation strategies frequently assume zero heritability, neglecting the adaptive potential of threatened populations.
  • Current recovery plans for US threatened and endangered species rarely assess within-population adaptability, reflecting a common assumption of slow or inconsequential evolutionary responses.
  • The omission of adaptability in conservation planning may hinder effective species recovery efforts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the extent to which conservation plans consider population adaptability.
  • To compile evidence on heritability and evolvability in natural populations.
  • To demonstrate how incorporating adaptability can improve conservation outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 10 years of US threatened and endangered species recovery plans.
  • Literature compilation of heritability (h2) and evolvability (IA) estimates.
  • Review of conservation assessments to identify impacts of considering adaptability.

    • Main Results:

    • Only 4% of evaluated recovery plans assessed within-population adaptability.
    • Median heritability (h2) and evolvability (IA) across studies are 0.3 and 0.4, respectively, indicating significant adaptive potential.
    • Considering adaptability can shift conservation priorities and management recommendations.

    Conclusions:

    • Moderate heritability and evolvability suggest that many populations can adapt to changing environments.
    • Conservation plans should integrate population adaptability, using a default expectation of moderate adaptability (h2 = 0.3, IA = 0.4) when specific data are absent.
    • Accounting for adaptability can enhance species rescue and optimize resource allocation in conservation.