Current burden and future projections of glaucoma in the United Kingdom

Up-to-date, stratified estimates of the number of individuals affected by glaucoma in the UK are lacking. This study aimed to estimate the current and future glaucoma burden in the UK population.

The most recent UK census data were used to obtain population counts stratified by age, sex and ethnicity. Age and sex-specific glaucoma prevalence estimates for individuals of European ancestry were sourced from a recent individual participant data meta-analysis of the European Eye Epidemiology Consortium. For non-European ethnic groups, prevalence was estimated by applying relative risks from a Bayesian global meta-analysis to the European baseline. Population projections from the UK's Office for National Statistics were used to estimate future disease burden.

Among 34 million UK adults aged ≥40 years, an estimated 1 019 629 individuals (95% CI 691 042 to 1 428 594) are currently living with glaucoma. Estimated age-specific case numbers increase from approximately 10 000 at ages 40-44 to nearly 173 000 in those ≥85 years. Although non-European groups represent only 5.8% of the UK population aged ≥65, they account for an estimated 8.1% of current glaucoma cases. By 2060, the number of affected individuals is projected to rise to 1.61 million (95% CI 1.11 million to 2.22 million), corresponding to a 60% rise in cases despite only a 28% population increase, driven by demographic ageing and the growth of higher-risk ethnic populations.

The UK glaucoma burden is substantially higher than previously estimated and is expected to rise further by 2060, underscoring the need for targeted resource allocation and strategic healthcare planning.