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Pólya urn model for analysis of football passes
1University of the Ryukyus, Faculty of Science, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan.
Abstract:
This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the Pólya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a single parameter. Building on this result, a data analysis method is proposed and applied to a large-scale public dataset of professional football matches. The statistical properties of the preferential-selection parameter are examined, demonstrating its correlation with pass accuracy and with mean pass difficulty. This method is applicable to various evolving networks.
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