Structural change in agricultural inputs and greenhouse gas Emissions: Pathways for sustainable environmental...

China's Agriculture is responsible for 17 % of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and stands at a critical juncture, balancing intensification and environmental sustainability. This study examines how structural change in key agricultural inputs, such as agricultural machinery power (AMP), pesticide consumption (PC), fertilizer consumption (FER), and plastic film use (PFCAg), influences agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using a Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (DYNARDL) simulation model and annual data from 1990 to 2023, the findings uncover several unexpected patterns. Our results demonstrate that increases in AMP and PFCAg are significantly associated with reductions in GHG emissions in both the short and long run, reflecting the role of energy-efficient mechanization and indirect environmental benefits of plastic mulching. In the long run, PC exhibits a positive relationship with emissions, suggesting underlying systemic efficiencies within China's agricultural production structure and emissions. By contrast, FER emerges as a persistent and significant driver of emissions across both horizons. These findings challenge prevailing assumptions regarding input emissions linkages and provide an evidence base for more targeted mitigation strategies. Policy recommendations include accelerating the adoption of renewable energy in agricultural mechanization, promoting biodegradable mulching technologies, utilizing renewable energy for pesticide and fertilizer production, and reforming fertilizer and pesticide application practices. These measures can facilitate a low-carbon agricultural transition aligned with China's 2060 carbon neutrality target.