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Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain.

Xin Ouyang1,2,3, Litao Liu1,2, Qiance Liu3

  • 1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.

Environmental Science and Ecotechnology
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Global cobalt supply chains face increasing risks due to geopolitical tensions. A new study reveals systemic vulnerabilities and cascading failures, emphasizing the need for international cooperation to ensure low-carbon technology transitions.

Keywords:
CobaltMaterial flow analysisMultilayer networkShock propagationSupply chain

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Area of Science:

  • * Earth and Environmental Sciences
  • * Economics
  • * Systems Engineering

Background:

  • * Critical minerals like cobalt are essential for the global transition to low-carbon technologies.
  • * Interconnected supply chains are vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and disruptions.
  • * Current risk assessments often isolate commodities, ignoring upstream-downstream dependencies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • * To analyze systemic risks in global cobalt flows from 1998 to 2019.
  • * To identify vulnerabilities and propagation pathways of disruptions in the cobalt supply chain.
  • * To assess the resilience of nations to supply chain shocks.

Main Methods:

  • * Integrated trade-linked material flow analysis with a multilayer shock propagation model.
  • * Analyzed global cobalt flows across 230 countries and regions.
  • * Modeled disruption propagation through horizontal-vertical and direct-indirect pathways.

Main Results:

  • * Disruptions propagate via complex pathways, concentrating risk at mining but accumulating at refining-manufacturing.
  • * Cascading failures create an 'avalanche network' four times denser than the physical supply chain.
  • * Nations with low fragility but high exposure (e.g., Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico) are highly susceptible.

Conclusions:

  • * Global systemic risks in cobalt supply chains show a volatile upward trend over two decades.
  • * National mitigation strategies are insufficient; system-level coordination is crucial.
  • * Achieving supply chain resilience requires stage-aware, multilateral cooperation.