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Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming.

Vincent T Cooper1, Kyle C Armour1,2, Gregory J Hakim1

  • 1Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|January 22, 2026
PubMed
Summary

Paleoclimates like the Pliocene inform Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Accounting for past "pattern effects" refines modern climate sensitivity estimates to 2.8°C, reducing future warming uncertainty.

Keywords:
climate dynamicsclimate projectionsclimate sensitivitycloud feedbackspaleoclimate

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