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Published on: August 7, 2017
Reentry and disintegration dynamics of space debris tracked using seismic data.
Benjamin Fernando1, Constantinos Charalambous2
1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Tracking space debris during reentry is difficult, but a new seismic inversion method accurately determines trajectory and fragmentation. This improves predictions for space situational awareness and debris hazard mitigation.
Area of Science:
- Space Science
- Geophysics
- Aerospace Engineering
Background:
- Increasing orbital congestion elevates risks from uncontrolled space debris reentry.
- Current methods struggle to accurately predict debris fallout locations due to tracking limitations during atmospheric burn-up.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a novel methodology for analyzing in-atmosphere space debris reentry dynamics.
- To improve the prediction accuracy of debris trajectory, size, and fragmentation patterns.
Main Methods:
- Demonstrated a minimum-gradient fit seismic inversion methodology.
- Applied the method to open-source data from the 2024 Shenzhou-15 reentry event.
Main Results:
- Successfully discerned in-atmosphere debris trajectory, speed, altitude, descent angle, size, and fragmentation.
- Derived a reentry location significantly south of the initially predicted track.
- Observed cascading, multiplicative fragmentation patterns offering insights into disintegration dynamics.
Conclusions:
- The seismic inversion methodology provides a rapid and reliable means to analyze space debris reentry.
- Enhanced space situational awareness and debris hazard mitigation are achievable with this improved tracking capability.
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