Forecasting rehabilitation needs in emerging economies: A multi-country analysis based on the Global Burden of...

Emerging economies, represented by BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India, Russian Federation and South Africa), have a substantial impact on the global rehabilitation needs. However, the rehabilitation needs of BRICS countries remain unascertained. This study aimed to explore the rehabilitation needs of the BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021 and predict the trend of rehabilitation needs.

Relevant data pertaining to eight condition categories (encompassing 27 individual conditions) requiring rehabilitation were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The joinpoint regression models were employed to calculate average annual percentage changes to quantify trends in age-standardized rates. The autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to predict rehabilitation needs until 2036.

The number of prevalent cases of total conditions requiring rehabilitation increased from 634 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 608-664) in 1990 to 1.093 billion (95% UI 1.056-1.135) in 2021, an increase of 72.2%. The years lived with disability counts of total conditions increased from 79 million (95% UI 60-101) in 1990 to 147 million (95% UI 112-189) in 2021, an increase of 85.6%. Since 1990, the age-standardized prevalence rates of total rehabilitation needs have been decreasing in all BRICS countries. The number of people needing rehabilitation will continue to grow, with 1.469 billion people in BRICS countries requiring rehabilitation services by 2036. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation in BRICS countries was musculoskeletal disorders with about 676 million people (95% UI 630-716) across eight condition categories, and hearing loss with 232 million people (95% UI 205-260) among 27 individual conditions.

The need for rehabilitation in BRICS countries has increased substantially over the past 32 years and will continue to increase until 2036. Although the rehabilitation needs are based on modeled estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we strongly recommend that rehabilitation services targeting these needs, particularly for musculoskeletal disorders and hearing loss within sensory impairments, be integrated into primary care systems.