Analysis of Risk Factors for Patency Rate After Ultrasound-Guided PTA for AVF Stenosis

This study aims to identify risk factors and develop a predictive model for restenosis after ultrasound-guided percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) for arteriovenous fistula (AVF) stenosis.

A total of 100 patients undergoing PTA were categorized into restenosis (n = 39) and non-restenosis (n = 61) groups based on 12-month follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression identified independent risk factors, and a nomogram was constructed. Model performance was assessed using ROC analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Diabetes (odds ratio [OR] = 1.94), type I stenosis (OR = 3.49), severe AVF stenosis (OR = 2.37), AVF functional time < 6 months (OR = 3.17), vascular calcification (OR = 4.34), and elevated High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein (OR = 2.82) were independent risk factors (all p < 0.05). The predictive model demonstrated good discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.820) and calibration (p = 0.3575). DCA confirmed clinical utility.

Key risk factors for restenosis were identified, and the predictive model showed strong performance, aiding clinical decision-making.