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Predictive coding and neurocomputational psychiatry: a mechanistic framework for understanding mental disorders.

Alexander D Shaw1, Rachael L Sumner2, Lioba C S Berndt1,3

  • 1Department of Psychology, Faculty of Health & Life Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom.

Frontiers in Psychiatry
|January 23, 2026
PubMed
Summary

Predictive coding offers a new way to understand mental disorders as alterations in the brain's predictive inference. This computational psychiatry framework could lead to better biomarkers and treatments for psychiatric conditions.

Keywords:
active inferencefree energymechanistic frameworkneurocomputational psychiatrypredictive coding

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Area of Science:

  • Computational neuroscience
  • Psychiatry
  • Cognitive science

Background:

  • Predictive coding provides a computational framework for brain function.
  • Mental disorders are increasingly studied through computational psychiatry.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To synthesize advances in computational psychiatry using predictive coding.
  • To propose mental disorders as alterations in the brain's predictive inference machinery.
  • To explore the clinical implications of this framework.

Main Methods:

  • Outlining theoretical foundations of predictive coding (Bayesian inference, free-energy minimization, neural dynamics).
  • Mapping computational principles to neural circuits and biophysical mechanisms.
  • Integrating theory, generative models, and empirical data.

Main Results:

  • Diverse psychiatric conditions can be understood within the predictive coding framework.
  • Predictive coding can be a testable, modifiable, and falsifiable construct in biological psychiatry.

Conclusions:

  • The predictive coding framework offers conceptual clarity for mental disorders.
  • This approach has significant clinical implications, including mechanistic biomarkers and personalized treatments.
  • Grounding psychiatric symptoms in aberrant predictive processes promises more targeted interventions.